2012年11月5日 星期一

公務員你們考得起嗎?真相是.........


果然有其時空環境、時代背景!

最近公務員(公僕)的待遇被檢討時,由一種高調的聲音說要當公僕的艱辛過程如何如何,回頭檢視一下歷史真相,現在領18%的退休人員是怎麼被錄用的,不要說又挑起省籍矛盾,事實擺在眼前!當年台灣及真的考不起啊!還又甲等特考掩護黑官漂白,更,他馬的時空背景!




考試院長關中2011年1月6日為回復18%政策辯護,刻意語帶歧視地嗆聲:「公務員你們考得起嗎?」還特別指出「公務人員絕對不等於一般人民,我想請問是不是每一 個人都能當公務人員,公務人員的錄取率是3%吔!」他更強調「公務人員當年不但薪水少、退休金少,而且公務人員保障極少,現在國家進步了,公務人員保障也 多了,薪水也增加、退休金也穩定了,國家是『照顧弱勢』」。我們就來看看國民黨人過去「公務人員的考試」是怎麼運作的:

首先,姚嘉文 1975年「高普考還要論省籍嗎?一八六比一的差異」一文中,指出當時黨國體制下,台灣社會是多麼的不公平:1951年時高普考到考總人數有 2409人,其中台灣省籍約占三分之一,但率取比率卻必須按照省籍分配,只有584分之9,公務員絕大多數是外省人;到民國70年代,率取比率仍僅有 186分之1;直到1991年修正戶籍法,才終止此一歧視分配。

其次,甲(假)等特考也是,早年甲(假)考只有幾位外省籍的競爭者,馬英九及蕭萬長才能大肆宣揚當上榜首;但是後來,假考都只列「及格」為何呢?因為有些根本是巧立科目讓一人獨考。請看自行檢視網路上流傳的《假等特考》名單

2012年10月18日 星期四

台灣實質薪資倒退12~14年!

台灣實質薪資倒退12~14年!


最近討論的薪資倒退問題,我的看法分析如下:
以主計總處"國情統計通報"資料來看,以2006年度為基底作成圖表後物價、實質、名目薪資接換基底為2006年如下圖,勉強可看出實質薪資確實有倒退現象,但糾結在一起很難一下分出其差異性。




由下圖就可以更明白,將基底拉回1981年所呈現的樣子,最初10年薪資翻一倍,後二十年漲幅不到1/4,還倒退十幾年。





同樣將基底拉回1981年,換個方式看過去30年分3個階段,也可看出,所呈現的樣子,最初10年薪資翻一倍,次一個十年漲幅不到1/4,最後10年原地踏步最後4年還倒退。
注意到:網路泡沫之低迷景氣仍微幅成長,金融海嘯卻栽大跟斗!




資料來源:主計總處  國情統計通報



2012年10月17日 星期三

Income Inequality in Taiwan - the fact that Gini coef can't find

Income Inequality in Taiwan

台灣戶別可支配所得差距持續擴大中-吉尼係數觀察不到的真相


雖然最近幾年吉尼係數仍維持在良好的0.34左右,但由此數值看不到的是在過去的35年裡,台灣按戶可支配所得不平等大幅增加。下面的圖表顯示,在收入分配的頂端(以下簡稱上尾)的趨勢與底部的分佈(尾)距離越拉越大,呈現完全不一樣趨勢 

尾”測量值=為可支配所得中間收入分配(第50百分位)除以接底部的分配(第10百分位)得比值。
尾”測量值=為可支配所得的頂部附近分佈(第90百分位數)除以分佈的中間(第50百分的家庭)

我們可以發現,急劇上升,在20世紀80年代經濟榮景之後穩步增長。反之,下尾成長有限。




在美國類似問題遲至1994年後才發生!
(下圖為美國男性工資資料圖)




Source: Economic Policy Institute. 2011. “Upper Tail” inequality growing steadily: Men's wage inequality, 1973-2009. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute. May 11, 2011.


台灣高支配額所得相對於低者成長及其趨勢狀況圖





 以上資料來源為主計處

2012年10月4日 星期四

The Best Global Brands 2012 (from Interbrand)

The Best Global Brands 2012

from www.Interbrand.com

Here are Top 36s




Coke-cola still top 1 and still upward.
IBM, the very old one, still rock-steady.(under Apple....Oh, what a couple of feuds)
Apple and Google is Dramatic rise.  crazy!
Microsoft is the only one downward brand :(
Samsung is  coming up!



about technology field:




2012年9月29日 星期六

Is Taiwanese democracy changing Chinese students?




Is Taiwanese democracy changing Chinese students?


Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou (centre) poses for a photo with a group of Chinese students in Tainan, 28 Apr 2012 (Picture courtesy Chinese Youth International)The first group of Chinese students have completed a year in Taiwan

In his first year in Taiwan, Chinese student "Paul" spent much of his spare time in bookstores and libraries - not poring over books for his field of study, but publications banned in China.
"I read more than 12 banned books in half a year... books about the Communist Party's history... and a lot of history books.
"I learned that before 4 June [date of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown], there were a lot of struggles. Chinese people's courage was not just limited to that one incident," said the student in his 20s, who wanted to use a pseudonym to avoid problems with the Chinese authorities.
"The books told in great detail what was brushed over in mainland China," he says.
"This changed the way I thought about China's historical figures and events - the more I read, the more I understood."
When China agreed last year to begin allowing Chinese students like Paul to study for academic degrees in Taiwan - as part of an unprecedented warming of relations between the two former rivals - it looked forward to both sides' young people getting to know each other.

That is seen as an important step toward overcoming mutual prejudices and improving ties further.
But by allowing impressionable minds to come here, Beijing may be getting more than it bargained for.
For the first time, its citizens can stay here for an extended period of time - up to four years - and experience for themselves how a democracy in a Chinese-speaking society functions.
'Way of life'
Nearly 1,000 students enrolled in local universities last year, and they have now completed their first academic year. Unlike studying in the UK or the US, here they do not have any language barrier.
Even the less politically-minded students cannot help but notice the openness of Taiwanese society, especially in the run-up to the presidential election in January.
They went to election rallies, not only for incumbent candidate President Ma Ying-jeou, but for his rival Tsai Ing-wen from the opposition party that favours Taiwan's formal independence from China.
"I felt Tsai Ing-wen exhibited good character when she accepted defeat," said one student who wished to be called 'Henry'.
With everything they are exposed to, many are left wondering why things are a certain way in Taiwan and another way in China, even though in their minds: "We're all Chinese".
A recent incident involving a family in Taipei surnamed Wang, which refused to make way for a redevelopment project, surprised Chinese students.
Large sit-ins and protests were held by rights activists and students in support of the family. In the end, the government amended laws to make it more difficult for developers to force residents to move.

"If there's a family like the Wang family in the mainland, no-one would support it, they would be afraid of getting in trouble. So that's a major difference. The family will have no way to resist the government's strength," Henry says.
"But in Taiwan, when people get involved, the government doesn't take a harsh approach, but instead responds quickly. Taiwan's method is very humane."
Besides hitting bookstores, those who are especially curious have looked up Taiwan-based Chinese dissidents Wang Dan and Wu'er Kaixi from the 4 June 1989 democracy movement. Some regularly attend Mr Wang's Democracy Salon - to discuss the prospects for democracy in China.
There are indications a wary Beijing wants to control how much the students are exposed to. Prior to coming here, some of the students are told by their local Taiwan Affairs Office to avoid contacting dissidents or members of the banned Falun Gong spiritual movement.
And they are advised that if they get a chance to meet Taiwan's president, they should address him as "Mr Ma" not "President Ma".
There are also signs Beijing tries to monitor what the students are up to while they are here. One Chinese student who had attended Mr Wang's democracy salon was called to a meeting by the Public Security Bureau in her hometown upon her return.
Another student who wrote a rather mellow article widely published in Taiwanese newspapers praising the island was cited as an example of inappropriate behaviour - publicly expressing her views - at a meeting in Beijing for students preparing to study in Taiwan.
While it is debatable how much the students' experience will influence them and China in the future, it is sure to have an impact, Taiwan's education officials say.
Wang Dan (R) and Wu'er Kaixi, leaders of the 1989 Tiananmen protests, give a press conference in Taipei, 27 Jan 2011Both Wu'er Kaixi (left) and Wang Dan (right) now live in Taiwan
"The impact isn't something you can see in a few days, but in the long term, especially if more of them come here, this will definitely have an impact on mainland China," says Wang Yeh-lih, chair of the political science department at National Taiwan University.
"Democracy is a way of life. In their time in Taiwan, be it four years for a bachelors or PhD or two years for a master degree, they'll experience democracy."
"When they return to China and are faced with similar situations, it'll affect how they see the situation, how they think a problem should be resolved," says Prof Wang.
Mutual gain?
The students also come away with different impressions of Taiwan.
Unlike the stereotypical images they see on China's TV stations about Taiwan's "chaotic" society - especially parliament's notorious fights - they realise that it is an orderly democracy and one in which the president frequently apologises when things go wrong.
"It doesn't seem chaotic," said 'Michael', another student who requested anonymity.
"All of a sudden, there might be several million people protesting in Taiwan, but it's a reflection of Taiwan's democracy. It's their right."
Many of the students even change their opinions about the touchy issue of Taiwan's sovereignty.
In China, many are taught the official line - that decades after the end of the Chinese civil war, Taiwan remains a province of China's to be reunified one day - by force if necessary.
"Before coming here, everyone felt the two sides must reunify. But after coming here, many people feel let's just maintain the status quo," says Paul.
"Why force people to be a certain way? It's something that should be decided by Taiwanese people."
Taiwan's Deputy Minister of Education Lin Tsong-ming believes allowing Chinese students to study here will do more than just help Taiwan's universities boost low enrolment - it will enable more Chinese people to recognise the benefits of not interfering with Taiwan's self rule.
"Letting them gain a better understanding of Taiwan's situation will be very helpful to the peaceful development between the two sides in the future," Mr Lin says. The two sides have yet to sign a peace treaty.
However, not everyone is impressed with everything in Taiwan. Many see the local media as politically biased and being manipulated by political or business interests. Others worry it could practice self-censorship if pro-China businesses increasingly take control.
And the students do not necessarily believe the same style of democracy will work in China.
"We think in the future, China will have such a day (democracy), but it's hard to say when," says Henry.
"Our situation is very chaotic. If it's not run well, it could have bad results.
Anti-China demonstrators displays banners reading 'one Taiwan, one China ' during a protest outside the Straits Exchange Foundation in Taipei, 8 Aug 2012Some Chinese students rethink Taiwan's status after they come to the island
"Taiwan's democracy didn't happen in a day either. Our road will be much longer; we have more people."
So far, the number of Chinese students coming here has been smaller than expected, partly because fears that they will take scholarships and jobs from local students have led to restrictions against them applying for government scholarships, or working.
Still, many of the students will leave with more than just their degree.
"What we've consistently heard from Chinese students... is that the strongest impression they have is Taiwan's democracy," Mr Lin said. "This will influence them throughout their careers."
Many of the students are the cream of the crop and could become future government officials or civil servants in China.
Despite a feeling that Taiwan's governing system is not perfect, their understanding of and desire for democracy becomes stronger after living here.
"Taiwan can help the mainland go on the path of democracy," Michael says. "When students come over, even if they don't know how the mainland will become a democracy, at least they know this is what Chinese democracy is like."
"Watching elections in the US and France is not the same. This is Chinese. Many people will ask can this be possible in China."



中國航空母艦 尚無戰鬥能力

中國航空母艦 尚無戰鬥能力

[轉貼]

這條船當初是香港的一個賭博公司購買的,聲稱要將其改造為海上豪華賭場。但是在過博斯普魯斯海峽的時候,在美國的壓力下,土耳其禁止該船經過。這個時候中國政府出面了(也暴露出此事的真正boss),經過兩年多的談判,最終土耳其放行,作為交換條件,中國每年提供兩百萬人次的遊客到土耳其旅遊。



作者 bxdfhbh (bxdfhbh) 看板 Gossiping 標題 Re: [新聞國防部:大陸航空母艦 尚無戰鬥能力 時間 Fri Apr 2 17:35:28 2010 
 引述《schwalbe (Rasputitza)之銘言:
國防部:大陸航空母艦 尚無戰鬥能力
時間:2010/4/1 15:17
撰稿編輯:鍾錦隆   新聞引據: 採訪




: 太平洋美軍司令威勒德(Robert F. Willard)日前預估中共第一艘航空母艦,將在2012
: 投入使用。對此,國防部今天(1)表示,中共只是把從烏克蘭取得的航空母艦翻修,但
: 距離執行戰鬥任務還有一段距離。
:   太平洋美軍司令威勒德上星期在美國國會指出,中共在1998年購買了蘇聯製造,但還
: 沒有完工的「瓦雅格(Vayag)」號,並從2002年起,在大連進行更新工程。他預期這艘航
: 空母艦在2012年左右將開始運作,用來訓練中共海軍基本的航艦技巧。



這個瓦雅格好像拼錯了,應該是Varyag,少了一個r
大陸這邊從俄語翻譯過來,翻譯為瓦良格號。
瓦雅格是從英語翻譯過來的。香港那邊似乎也有人翻譯成瓦雅格。

這條船是前蘇聯的庫茲涅佐夫元帥級航母的第二條。
前蘇聯的庫茲涅佐夫元帥級航母,一共造了兩條,
第一條是庫茲涅佐夫號,在蘇聯解體前造好,而且在解體前夕從黑海艦隊調往北海艦隊,
逃過了被烏克蘭占據的命運。
但是俄羅斯經費拮據,沒有太多錢去修建配套的輔助性的軍艦,形成航母戰斗群。甚至連
航母遠航的經費都沒有,這條船長期停在岸邊。
為航母配備的艦載機雅克—141(可垂直起降、超音速巡航,具備遠程精確打擊和低可探測
性的三代半戰機,可惜比美國的F22差得多)也沒有錢去生產,能飛的只有兩架實驗用的。
只好拿Su33Su27的艦載型)來用。


第二條就是這個瓦良格號。
蘇聯解體的時候,正在造船廠里建造,因此落到了烏克蘭手里。雖然已經完成了85%,但是
烏克蘭沒有錢去繼續修建下去。
最終極度缺錢的烏克蘭將這個船賣了。目前正在大連翻修。
解放軍沒有垂直起降戰機,因此現在翻修的時候連防熱甲板都拆了(雅克-141垂直起降需
要向下噴熱氣,因此需要防熱甲板),目前可以預期的艦載機是仿自su33的殲15
俄羅斯是不提供Su33給中國的,但是中國從烏克蘭那里買來了Su33的原型機,因此仿制不
成問題。

當這個船離開造船廠的時候,造船廠的廠長抱病從病床上前往海邊,當看到船只離岸的時
候,當場嚎啕大哭。
在船抵達大連之前,他就病逝了,沒能看到瓦良格號的後續翻新。


這條船當初是香港的一個賭博公司購買的,聲稱要將其改造為海上豪華賭場。
但是在過博斯普魯斯海峽的時候,在美國的壓力下,土耳其禁止該船經過。這個時候中國
政府出面了(也暴露出此事的真正boss),經過兩年多的談判,最終土耳其放行,作為交
換條件,中國每年提供兩百萬人次的遊客到土耳其旅遊。


比庫茲涅佐夫級更先進,規模更大的有烏里揚諾夫斯克級航母。
烏里揚諾夫斯克級航母比美國尼米茲級航母略小,帶兩部蒸汽彈射器(說明蘇聯已經具備
了蒸汽彈射的生產技術),同時也有滑躍甲板。而且采用核動力(庫茲涅佐夫級原本打算
采用核動力,最終沒有使用核動力)。

第一條是烏里揚諾夫斯克號。
蘇聯解體的時候造了45%,同樣因為沒有經費而停止。
根據網上看到的說法,
當時挪威公司向烏克蘭下單購買六艘大型商船,這種商船需要烏里揚諾夫斯克號所在的船
臺。
與此同時,一家美國公司向烏克蘭下單購買烏里揚諾夫斯克號上的鋼材。
烏克蘭立刻把烏里揚諾夫斯克號拆解了,以空出船臺,同時出售鋼材。
但是等烏里揚諾夫斯克號被拆完後,挪威公司和美國公司都撤單毀約。
這樣,挪威和美國只花費了很小的違約代價,就廢掉了這艘完成度45%的航母。
最終航母鋼材只能以低價按照廢鋼賣掉。


第二條還沒有命名,
因為完成度較低,被徹底拆除了。



比庫茲涅佐夫級早一些,落後一些的,則是基輔級航母。
基輔級航母一共造了四艘。
第一艘是基輔號。
蘇聯解體後,俄羅斯太窮,無法維持,於是賣給中國的娛樂公司,價格是7000萬元人民幣。
現在停在天津漢沽港的天津國際游樂港,作為娛樂設施賣門票供遊人參觀。

第二艘是明斯克號。
第三艘是新羅西斯克號(諾沃羅西斯克號)。
蘇聯解體後,俄羅斯太窮,急需現金,於是按照廢鐵的價格將兩條航母賣給韓國大宇集團,
兩條航母賣價只有1300萬美金,條件是韓國必須徹底拆毀航母為小於2平方米的碎塊,而且
不能用於軍事目的。
當明斯克號和新羅西斯克號被拖出海參崴的時候,許多俄羅斯水兵都哭了(基輔號不管怎
樣還是完整地存在於世上,明斯克號和新羅西斯克號按照約定必須徹底消失)。

韓國購買後,欣喜不已。雖然這條航母在蘇聯也是過時的技術,但是對韓國已經是很先進
的技術了,韓國從中學習不少,并不顧購買時的約定打算將其改造為韓國的航母。

結果1997年亞洲金融風暴,韓國經濟遭受重創,已經無力維持航母了。
新羅西斯克號被拆解成為廢鐵。而明斯克號被大宇集團轉手賣給中國的娛樂公司。現在停
在深圳鹽田港中英街附近,作為娛樂設施賣門票供遊人參觀。


第四艘是戈爾什科夫海軍上將號。
蘇聯解體後,俄羅斯太窮,而印度的老航母維克蘭特號航母則快退役了,急需新的航母。
於是印度向俄羅斯購買了這艘航母,同時俄羅斯替印度升級改造到最新的技術。
不過看起來俄羅斯正在將印度當凱子削,不斷加價,現在印度已經被削去了數十億美金,
而且還沒完工。

另外,據我所知,瓦良格號很可能不是用來作為戰斗艦,而是訓練艦。
解放軍準備將這條船作為訓練艦,訓練艦載機飛官。同時翻修這條船,也可以學習航艦的
建造經驗。

另外,我個人覺得,將來可能新建的新航母,也不是針對臺灣,而是針對南海周邊的東南
亞各國。因為打臺灣的話,用不到航母。現在主力戰機的作戰半徑都上千公里,即便繞到東岸,也用不到航母。10的航程3500公里,作戰半徑1100公里;11航程4390公里,作戰半徑1500公里;
-11B因為使用復合材料取代金屬材料,可能航程和作戰半徑比殲-11要大很多。
如果使用空中加油的話,距離還要長很多。


而在南海,解放軍缺乏遠程航空力量,因此非常薄弱。東南亞國家,例如越南,則是在家門口作戰,飛機隨叫隨到。當年赤瓜礁海戰,解放軍海軍打敗了越南海軍,但是取勝後艦隊馬上撤退離開,原因就是沒有空軍護航,擔心越南空軍的Su22報復,而在空軍面前沒有飛機的海軍就是靶子。

因此有了航母,才有能力爭奪南海。

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發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
From: 124.193.141.130
 LEON90385:這篇文章值769 專業推 04/02 17:37
 gpentacene:不走博斯普魯斯海峽,不能繞道嗎?往西或往北? 
04/02 17:38
博斯普魯斯海峽馬爾馬拉海達達尼爾海峽,是連接黑海和地中海的必經之路。

 shunchao:專業推 04/02 17:39
 hoseumou:往西或往北? 你是要從西伯利亞鐵路運到中國嗎? 04/02 17:39
編輯: bxdfhbh 來自: 124.193.141.130 (04/02 17:41)
 hoseumou:我是說2F 04/02 17:40
 tacowzj:二樓........................................ 04/02 17:41
 jrshiun: 04/02 17:42
 hitlerx:雖然不知正確性,但是看起來是專業長文,推一下 04/02 17:43
 zinner:不一定要繞道 鑽地洞也行啊~ 04/02 17:44
 Maxslack:一直看到同一句話 解體之後 蘇聯太窮 XDDD 04/02 17:45
 hoseumou:中國航母就算快完工 但艦載機的生產或購買完全沒消息 04/02 17:45
 Maxslack: 是俄羅斯 XD 活像鬼打牆 04/02 17:45
 DavidHilbert:不一定要繞道 可以從空中飛過去 04/02 17:45
 Benitez:二樓的地理... 04/02 17:45
 hoseumou:所以說戰時還沒有戰力 04/02 17:45
 hoseumou:2F可知地理課程不能廢除 04/02 17:46
 Benitez:有航母 爭南海資源的時候說話比較大聲 對美國則要暫時裝孬 
04/02 17:47
 ioppoi:蘇聯解體後,俄羅斯太窮.......阿金磚四國不是有俄羅斯? 04/02 17:48
金磚四國是近年,不是當年。
這些年因為石油、天然氣價格大漲,同時俄羅斯自身產業也開始恢復,所以俄羅斯經濟有
好轉。俄羅斯的自然資源是極為豐富的,只要原物料大漲,他就掙錢多。
當年俄羅斯可是窮得什麼都賣出去了,Su27的生產線都賣給了潛在敵人中國。

而且俄羅斯畢竟只繼承了蘇聯的一半經濟實力,再恢復,也無法恢復到前蘇聯那個實力了。
更何況蘇聯時代窮兵黷武,軍費可是遠超過今天。
編輯: bxdfhbh 來自: 124.193.141.130 (04/02 17:52)
 gogolct:強國的衰弱好辛酸..不過現在俄羅斯又有振作起來的跡象了 04/02 17:51


總結一下前蘇聯解體後,蘇聯那些航空母艦的下場:

基輔級————————————庫茲涅佐夫元帥級——————烏里揚諾夫斯克級


基輔級:
基輔號(天津的基輔號游樂園)
明斯克號(深圳的明斯克號樂園)
新羅西斯克號(賣給韓國拆除)
戈爾什科夫海軍上將號(賣給印度)


庫茲涅佐夫元帥級:
庫茲涅佐夫元帥號(俄羅斯北海艦隊現役,但因為窮,一直很窮酸)
瓦良格號(正在大連翻修,可能將來成為解放軍的訓練用艦)


烏里揚諾夫斯克級:
烏里揚諾夫斯克號(未完工,在挪威和美國公司的假訂單下拆除)
尚未命名的某艘(未完工,拆除)
編輯: bxdfhbh 來自: 124.193.141.130 (04/02 18:01)
 turkeyma:航母在南海會不會很容易擱淺? 04/02 17:56
南海沒這麼淺吧。
南海平均深度1212米。

 hn12742965:推專業文 04/02 17:57
編輯: bxdfhbh 來自: 124.193.141.130 (04/02 18:04)
 gogolct:這樣是說整個俄羅斯剩一艘空母在服役了嗎? 04/02 18:05
是的,而且沒錢遠航。
2005年才第一次遠洋航行。

編輯: bxdfhbh 來自: 124.193.141.130 (04/02 18:15)
 hoseumou:我記得90年代就有遠航了 而且曾在地中海演習過 04/02 18:20
你說是1999年亞得里亞海那次嗎?
那次俄羅斯沒有出動航母。

 HCCLandRover:專業文 推 04/02 18:20
 FlyinDeath:專業!! 04/02 18:24
編輯: bxdfhbh 來自: 124.193.141.130 (04/02 18:40)
 treker:前蘇聯的水兵一定很難過 往昔紅色帝國艦隊化為廢鐵 04/02 18:36
 treker:俄羅斯似乎光養彼得大帝號就很吃力了 加上一大票中古核潛 
04/02 18:45
 freakclaw:真是好文. 04/02 19:23
 fago:專業推~ 04/02 22:34
 NEWORDER: 04/03 11:10